Cooperation in the Pacific Rim by Jakob Polacsek, World Economic Forum (CC BY-NC-SA 2.0) https://www.flickr.com/photos/worldeconomicforum/48179628441

Cooperation in the Pacific Rim by Jakob Polacsek, World Economic Forum (CC BY-NC-SA 2.0) https://www.flickr.com/photos/worldeconomicforum/48179628441

Digital Trade

Pete Souza [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

The Trouble With the TPP, Day 48: U.S. Reserves Right to “Certify” Canada’s TPP Implementation

The Trouble with the TPP series has focused on dozens of problematic provisions within the trade agreement and identified several implementation possibilities that might limit some of the harm. For example, the post on copyright term extension discussed how Canada could require copyright registration and notification of the extended term in order to qualify for further protection. Copyright registration would not eliminate all the harm to the public domain, but it would mean that only those that desire the extension would take the positive steps to get it, thereby reducing the costs of the TPP’s unnecessary copyright term extension.

Should Canada move toward ratification of the TPP, there is a concern that attempts to mitigate the harm of some provisions will face opposition from the U.S. While implementation flexibility is the goal of every negotiator, the U.S. reserves the right to “certify” whether other TPP countries have, in its view, properly implemented the agreement.

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March 10, 2016 Comments are Disabled News
Trio of Canadian Cheeses by Lucas Richarz (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0) https://flic.kr/p/a4K3Mw

The Trouble With the TPP, Day 47: Hits and Misses in the Agricultural Sector

If the Trouble with the TPP is that it is unlikely to generate significant economic growth or create many new jobs (some studies predict job losses), where are the benefits? The agricultural sector is often pointed to as a likely winner with the expectation that more open markets will result in Canadian farmers selling more beef, pork, canola, and other products. Those predictions may prove true, but based on what the Standing Committee on International Trade has heard, there are many other agricultural sectors that stand to lose as a result of the deal.

The dairy industry is the most obvious sector that projects losses in the billions of dollars. Indeed, the Conservative government promised billions of taxpayer dollars as compensation for those losses. When the dairy industry appeared before the committee, it made it clear that it expects the Liberal government to honour the same payout, arguing that the compensation – which amounts to $150,000 per dairy farmer – is part of the agreement (even if not actually part of the TPP text).

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March 9, 2016 1 comment News
The Prime Minister and I talking with a Ford employee by Terence Young (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0) https://flic.kr/p/dNKunv

The Trouble With the TPP, Day 46: Limited Employment Gains or Even Job Losses for Canada

Yesterday’s Trouble with the TPP post canvassed the economic studies released to date on the agreement, finding that the evidence suggests that the economic gains for Canada are modest at best. In addition to efforts to assess the economic growth impact of the TPP, some studies have also tried to estimate its effect on employment.

The Tufts University study referenced yesterday has a specific analysis on job growth. It anticipates that Canada will lose jobs as a result of the TPP, projecting a loss of 58,000 jobs in Canada. That ranks the third highest in the TPP, but the highest of all countries on a per capita basis.

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March 8, 2016 2 comments News
I think I need a Lear Jet by JoshNV (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0) https://flic.kr/p/3eaugw

The Trouble With the TPP, Day 45: Limited Economic Gains for Canada

The Trouble with the TPP series has spent the past two months examining dozens of provisions in the agreement and their implications for Canadians and Canadian law. Yet beyond the new restrictions, missed opportunities, and business uncertainty, lies real doubt about the actual gains from the TPP. While certain groups were prepared to support the TPP sight unseen, the evidence continues to mount that there are very limited Canadian benefits from the deal. The next few days will consider the economic and employment implications of the TPP.

At a recent Standing Committee on International Trade hearing on the TPP, Brian Kingston, a Vice-President with the Business Council of Canada (formerly the Canadian Council of Chief Executives) was asked if there were any negatives about the deal. Incredibly, Kingston responded that he could not think of any, a position that was rebutted in the next hearing as agricultural groups talked about billions in losses. Further, Kingston was also asked about studies on the TPP. He indicated that the main study he had seen was from the Peterson Institute.

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March 7, 2016 2 comments News
Farm by Zach Stern (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0) https://flic.kr/p/bdLL3X

The Trouble With the TPP, Day 44: Canada’s Terrible ISDS Track Record

The Trouble with the TPP has discussed how the agreement’s investor-state dispute settlement provisions do not meet the standard set by the Canadian government in CETA, do not address key concerns over policy making as illustrated by the Bilcon case, and raise enormous risks as demonstrated by the ongoing Eli Lilly dispute over Canadian patent law. This final ISDS post points another problem for Canada with ISDS rules: our track record is terrible.

According to the UNCTAD dispute resolution database, Canadian investors lodged 39 claims between 1998 and 2016 using ISDS provisions found in trade agreements and bilateral investment treaties. With all those claims, Canada has only won three times: a 2013 mining case against Kyrgyzstan, a 2011 mining case against Mongolia, and a 2009 mining case against Venezuela. The record is even worse in claims involving NAFTA as Apotex lost in 2008, 2009, and 2012; Canadian Cattlemen lost in 2005,  Grand River lost in 2004, Glamis Gold lost in 2003, Thunderbird lost in 2002, ADF lost in 2000, Methanex lost in 1999, Mondev lost in 1999, and Loewen lost in 1998. Canadian companies just doesn’t seem to win NAFTA claims.

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March 4, 2016 3 comments News